Q1 2026 Earnings — Reported May 6, 2026 · Wegovy Pill Doubles Analyst Estimates · Stock +7%
Wegovy Pill DKK 2.3B · Strongest GLP-1 U.S. Launch in History · Guidance Raised · 65% Wegovy New Rx Share
Novo Nordisk reported a complex but operationally improving Q1 2026. Reported sales rose 32% (+65% operating profit) at CER, heavily boosted by a $4.2B non-cash 340B provision reversal. Adjusting for this, sales fell 4% at CER as U.S. pricing pressure offset volume growth. The key positive: Wegovy pill sales of DKK 2.3B nearly doubled analyst estimates (DKK 1.16B consensus), with 1.3M prescriptions in Q1 and 2M+ since the January 5 launch — the strongest GLP-1 volume launch in U.S. history. FY2026 guidance raised. Stock +6–7% on the day.
Key Metrics — Q1 2026 Actuals (Official 6-K SEC Filing · DKK = Danish Krone)
Reported Sales
DKK 96.8B
+32% at CER · $15.2B USD
Adj. Sales (ex-340B)
DKK 70.1B
−4% at CER · pricing pressure
Reported Operating Profit
DKK 59.6B
+65% at CER
Adj. Operating Profit
DKK 32.9B
−6% at CER
Wegovy Pill Sales
DKK 2.3B
~2x analyst est. of DKK 1.16B
Obesity Care Adj. Sales
+22% CER
Volume-led growth
Wegovy Pill Rx (Q1)
1.3M
2M+ cumulative since Jan 5 launch
Wegovy New Rx Share (U.S.)
65%
Of all new GLP-1 obesity Rx in U.S.
340B Provision Reversal
$4.2B
Non-cash · one-time · no cash flow impact
Ozempic U.S. Price Erosion
−10–15%
Annual pricing decline · per CFO guidance
Beat / Miss Matrix
Beats
Wegovy Pill SalesEst. DKK 1.16BDKK 2.26B (+95%)
Adj. Operating ProfitEst. DKK 28.7BDKK 32.9B (+14.6%)
Reported SalesEst. ~DKK 69–72BDKK 96.8B (+340B boost)
Obesity Care Adj. Sales—+22% at CER · volume-led
Adj. Reported Operating ProfitConsensusBeat by 1% (adj.) & 14% (op.)
FY2026 GuidancePrior −5% to −13%Raised to −4% to −12%
Concerns
Adj. Sales (ex-340B)Volume growth expected−4% at CER (pricing drag)
Adj. Operating ProfitPrior year−6% at CER
U.S. Operations Adj. Sales—−11% at CER (pricing)
Ozempic U.S. Sales—−8% YoY (pricing erosion)
CagriSema clinical setback—Inferior to Zepbound in own trial
FY Guidance still decliningGrowth expectedStill −4% to −12% guidance
P&L Summary — Q1 2026 (Official 6-K SEC Filing · DKK millions)
Key Financial Results — Reported vs. Adjusted
Reported SalesDKK 96,823M—+32% CER
340B Provision Reversal (non-cash)+DKK 26,800M$4.2B USDOne-time
Adj. Sales (ex-340B)DKK 70,063M—−4% CER
U.S. Operations Adj. Sales——−11% CER
Intl. Operations Sales——+6% CER
Obesity Care Adj. Sales——+22% CER
Wegovy InjectableDKK 18,200M—+12% YoY
Wegovy Pill (oral)DKK 2,256MEst. DKK 1,160M~2x estimates
Ozempic (diabetes)——−8% YoY
Reported Operating ProfitDKK 59,618M—+65% CER
Adj. Operating ProfitDKK 32,858MEst. DKK 28,700MBeat +14.6%
Reported diluted EPSDKK 10.91—+67% YoY
Adj. diluted EPSDKK 6.63—−3% YoY
Product Performance & CEO Quote
GLP-1 Obesity & Diabetes Portfolio
Wegovy Pill (oral, launched Jan 5)DKK 2.26B · 1.3M Rx Q1
Wegovy weekly TRx (Apr 17)>200,000/week
Wegovy new Rx market share65% of all new GLP-1 obesity Rx
Wegovy InjectableDKK 18.2B (+12% YoY)
Wegovy HD (7.2mg, FDA approved)Approved Mar · launched Apr 7
Ozempic (diabetes)−8% YoY · above LSEG est.
Ozempic U.S. pricing trend−10–15% p.a. · per CFO
Pipeline & Regulatory Actions Q1 2026
Wegovy HD (7.2mg)FDA approved Mar · STEP UP 20.7% WL
Wegovy Pill intl. launchH2 2026 · pending regulatory approvals
CagriSemaInferior to Zepbound in own trial
Zenagamtide (AMAZE Ph3)Phase 3 initiated
Etavopivat (sickle cell)HIBISCUS Ph3 met co-primary endpoints
Q1 regulatory approvals6 approvals in Q1 2026
Clinical trials initiated>10 new trials in Q1
"Wegovy is driving a strong start to 2026 for Novo Nordisk, led by the rapid adoption of Wegovy pill — the most efficacious GLP-1 tablet now used by more than one million patients since its January launch. As the global momentum behind peptide-based therapies accelerates, Wegovy pill is defining a novel category as the only oral peptide for the treatment of obesity, setting a new benchmark for what patients and physicians can expect. The numbers with the pill speak for themselves."
Maziar Doustdar, CEO · Q1 2026 Earnings Call, May 6, 2026
FY 2026 Guidance — Raised May 6, 2026
Full-Year 2026 Guidance — Raised Post Q1 (vs. Prior −5% to −13%)
Adj. Sales Growth (CER)
−4% to −12%
Raised +1pp
Adj. Op. Profit Growth (CER)
−4% to −12%
Raised +1pp
Wegovy Pill Intl. Launch
H2 2026
Select markets
Wegovy Pill Weekly TRx (Apr)
>200K/wk ✓
As of Apr 17
Obesity TAM (untreated)
>900M people
~1% treated
CagriSema Ph3 (next-gen)
Inferior to ZepboundSetback
Ozempic U.S. pricing erosion
−10–15%/yr
Ongoing
Positives & Concerns
Positives
▲Wegovy pill sales of DKK 2.26B in Q1 — nearly double the DKK 1.16B analyst consensus — represent the strongest GLP-1 volume launch in U.S. history, with 1.3M prescriptions in Q1 and 2M+ cumulative since the January 5 launch. Weekly prescriptions exceeded 200,000 by mid-April, growing double-digit even after Eli Lilly launched the competing Foundayo pill in April.
▲Wegovy holds 65% of all new GLP-1 obesity prescriptions in the U.S. — despite significant Lilly competition. CEO Doustdar called this a "turnaround situation" and stated the numbers "speak for themselves." The oral pill is establishing a dominant early market position in a category that only Novo currently occupies with an FDA-approved oral peptide.
▲Adjusted operating profit of DKK 32.9B beat the DKK 28.7B estimate by 14.6% — confirming that excluding the 340B one-time reversal, the underlying business is executing better than the Street expected on cost discipline and volume growth in international markets.
▲Wegovy HD (7.2mg, showing 20.7% mean weight loss in STEP UP) was FDA approved in March and launched April 7 — extending the injectable franchise upward and providing an additional efficacy option for patients seeking more weight loss than standard Wegovy achieves.
▲The global obesity opportunity remains structurally enormous — over 900 million people with obesity, fewer than 1% currently treated with branded anti-obesity medications. Even a modest penetration expansion would represent a generational revenue opportunity well beyond current market pricing.
Concerns
▼Adjusted sales (excluding the $4.2B 340B non-cash reversal) declined 4% at CER — driven entirely by U.S. pricing pressure. U.S. Operations adjusted sales fell 11% at CER, confirming that volume growth is insufficient to offset the ongoing price erosion in the core U.S. market. The full-year guidance still calls for 4–12% adjusted sales and profit declines.
▼Ozempic U.S. pricing eroding at 10–15% annually — per CFO Karsten Knudsen on the earnings call, this trajectory is unchanged from 2025. With Ozempic contributing a significant portion of Novo's diabetes revenue, this structural pricing erosion is a persistent multi-year headwind.
▼CagriSema — Novo's next-generation combination GLP-1+amylin candidate — was shown to be inferior to Eli Lilly's Zepbound (tirzepatide) in Novo's own clinical comparison. This setback directly undermines the pipeline thesis for a differentiated successor to semaglutide, and prompted NVO stock to close at a new 5-year low at the time of the data release.
▼Wegovy pill sales of DKK 2.26B included approximately DKK 960M (~$150M) related to pre-launch pipeline fill with wholesalers and telehealth partners — meaning the underlying sell-through demand was approximately DKK 1.3B, closer to consensus once pipeline fill is excluded. The headline beat partially overstates pure patient demand.
▼Eli Lilly launched Foundayo (oral orforglipron) in April, directly competing with the Wegovy pill in the oral GLP-1 obesity category. While Novo's market share remains dominant at 65% of new Rx, competitive dynamics will intensify through H2 2026 as Lilly aggressively promotes its own oral product with a potentially simpler once-daily regimen.
Analyst Coverage — Post Q1 2026
Wall Street Ratings — Post May 6, 2026
| Firm / Source | Rating | Price Target | Note |
|---|
| Jefferies (M. Leuchten) | Buy | — | Adj. op. profit beat consensus by 14%; Wegovy pill ~2x estimates |
| TIKR Mid-Case Model | Constructive | ~$78 (2030) | ~69% total return · ~12% annualized IRR · oral Wegovy + CagriSema |
| InvestingPro | Undervalued | — | P/E 13.17x · Market cap $211B · 38yr dividend payer · yield 3.77% |
| TipRanks AI (Spark) | Neutral | — | Strong financials + attractive valuation vs. weak technicals + declining guidance |
| Cautious view | Hold / Underperform | — | CagriSema setback + FY declines + Ozempic pricing creates multi-year headwind |
| Stock reaction (May 6) | +6–7% | ~$47.53 | Down −56% from 52-week high · recovery from 5-year low $38 |
Earnings Verdict
Wegovy Pill Delivers — But Pricing Headwinds Define the Recovery Pace
Novo Nordisk's Q1 2026 is a tale of two numbers: reported results boosted by a $4.2B non-cash 340B reversal, and adjusted results showing 4% sales declines at CER. The critically important story is the Wegovy pill — 1.3M prescriptions in Q1, DKK 2.26B in sales (nearly double estimates), 65% new Rx market share, and 2M+ cumulative patients in less than four months. This is the strongest GLP-1 oral launch in history and a direct validation that Novo can expand the obesity TAM beyond the injectable market. The structural headwinds remain real: U.S. adjusted sales fell 11% at CER, Ozempic pricing is eroding 10–15% annually, and FY2026 full-year guidance still calls for 4–12% adjusted declines. CagriSema's inferiority to Zepbound was a meaningful pipeline setback. The guidance raise of one percentage point is constructive but modest. At a P/E of ~13x on a company with 900M+ untreated patients in its addressable market, the long-term valuation case is compelling if the oral Wegovy trajectory continues and pricing pressure stabilizes. The stock's +7% on earnings day and recovery from the 5-year low reflects the market pricing in cautious optimism — not a structural return to the prior $130+ peak. Next earnings August 2026.
FY Sales Guide
−4% to −12%